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February 05, 2007
Vaccine for Uncreative Blogging?
So I haven't written in a while. Who knows why? But I was reading Mr Pad's blog and decided that I had a rather lengthy response that wouldn't fit well as a comment.
On Vaccine Denial
I can think of two reasons why parents would not get their kids vaccinated. One is very rational, one not so much.
First the irrational. I've had to take my daughter in for her shots several times at this point, and I'll have to go again this Friday for her two-year set. I'm not looking forward to this. Having to hold down your kid, kicking and screaming, while some cold-handed stranger shoves sharp metal barbs into her thigh is about the most traumatic thing you'll do this year. It's really horrible. Some people probably don't want to go through such trauma. It's illogical, but it's a very realistic response when you consider all the strange biology that goes along with protecting your offspring.
But there is also a very, very rational reason to avoid vaccination. It goes like this:
Assume for a moment that vaccine for a particular disease works perfectly (i.e. no person who gets the vaccine will ever get the disease). Assume also, that the disease only exists in humans and that everyone in the world, except you, has already got the vaccine. Now, account for the fact that vaccines are slightly dangerous and can possibly kill you, albeit with very low probability. No you should ask yourself: Should I get the vaccine?
The obvious answer is, "no." Why? Because there is no way you can possibly get the disease, meaning the probability of dying from it is zero, and in not taking the vaccine, the probability of dying from the "cure" is also zero. Also, we save the money on buying the thing, but if you're the last person in the world who needs it, you might find it on sale.
Now, if we flex the assumptions a bit and say that MOST of the people in the population are vaccinated and that the vaccine works in most of the people who got it, should your choice to not get the vaccine change? I'd say usually yes, but not necessarily. I feel pretty comfortable having not had the smallpox vaccine, but I still get a flu shot.
Am I irrational?
Posted by james at 10:07 PM | Comments (2)